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Box Office Thread 2018
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:32 am    Post subject: Box Office Thread 2018 Reply with quote

Figured it was time to roll out this year's box office thread. We'll lead off with some candidates to do big business at the box office this year.

Black Panther: There's a lot of buzz about this film. It's the first to feature a black superhero in the lead, it's getting released during February, which is both Black History Month and a month in which studios are now more likely to release big franchises and it's the final MCU release before Infinity War.

A Wrinkle In Time: It's getting a March release and based on a popular novel. There seems to be good buzz about it so far. It's worth asking if this will be like Hunger Games, in that if there's enough excitement about it building to its release, it means a strong box office showing.

New Mutants: Call this one a wild card. The X-Men franchise hasn't always delivered monster hits, but if this one gets a buzz as good as Logan did, it might surprise.

Avengers: Infinity War: Here's the first candidate to challenge for the summer box office and the year's box office crown. They've been building up Thanos in small doses for a while and now we finally get that confrontation. The question is whether it can avoid the disappointment people had with Age of Ultron. But perhaps Anthony and Joe Russo, after delivering twice with their two Captain America films, can deliver on expectations.

Solo: A Star Wars Story: The second attempt to do a Star Wars story that isn't tied to the "episodes" that generate the most buzz. Rogue One, though, did strong business and you would think this one would do the same, especially if it's as well received.

Deadpool 2: Fox Studios inserted this into a rather crowded summer box office field. It's going to have to deal with the Han Solo film, but the first film had such strong appeal that it might have enough interest to generate a strong run. The only question is whether it can do as well as the first Deadpool film did.

The Incredibles 2: Between the superhero film craze and the anticipation to see a sequel to The Incredibles, I'm thinking this one could be big. How big it gets, though, depends a lot on how much its audience is divided between it and the next film on the list.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: The last JW film was a surprise, monster hit and nobody is going to look past this installment. Between this, Incredibles 2 and Deadpool 2, there's going to be a fair amount of audience crossover and jostling for the box office take. Still, I think the second JW film will generate enough draw based on how well the first JW film did.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Marvel is putting it out on Fourth of July weekend, so they have some faith that it can be a big hit. It's the first Marvel film to come out after Infinity War, so there will be some interest regarding how events unfold after the big battle with Thanos. Also, my understanding is Paul Rudd won't be in Infinity War, leaving the question as to how his character will affect events post-Thanos arrival.

Dark Phoenix: Fox Studios will bring back much of the cast from X-Men Apocalypse. Supposedly it will be done the way Brian Singer actually wanted to do the Last Stand film before he left to direct Superman. A lot depends on how much critics and audiences like it.

Fantastics Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: And the Harry Potter spinoff franchise continues. The first film did business about in line with the Potter franchise, but we'll see if it can continue doing so.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: This will feature the Miles Morales version of Spider-Man, who is the more recent person to take up the Spider-Man mantle. I know Marvel fans love Morales, so this one could be a sleeper hit, especially because there are a lot of question marks among films coming out at Christmas.

Bumblebee and Aquaman: I put these two together because they are also headlining Christmas releases and I'm shrugging my shoulders as to what they might do. Bumblebee is the Transformers spinoff and while that line is losing steam, perhaps a new director and direction can make it work. Aquaman is hard to judge given how disappointing Justice League was, but if it's able to generate buzz and critics and audiences like it enough, who knows what could happen.

ETA: Mojo has a whole bunch of untitled films that are scheduled for release and, in at least one case, it's hard to see the studio getting one out in time (DC film in July). Others are likely in production but the studios haven't released details yet.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Insidious: The Last Key opened with $29.2M, second only to the second film in the series, which made $40.2M.

The second film finished at $83.5M, so the fourth film won't get that far. But there is a comp with the third film, which opened at $22.6M and finished with $52.2M as a summer release.

Seems like $50M will be a safe bet for this installment, with $55M likely and a chance at $60M but needing some legs to get there.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's one film I forgot to add to the films to keep an eye on for top box office draws.

Mission Impossible 6 will hit theaters July 27. The franchise has generally been good for drawing close to $200M or more than that, with the exception of the third film. The last film released new $195M. While maybe not a contender for a top spot, there's always a chance it can break $200M if it gets good buzz.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Insidious passed $60M this past weekend. I still don't know if it will have enough in the tank to reach the second film's tally, but it has a better shot. Of course, it's been helped by a lack of competition.

That will all change when Black Panther hits theaters Feb. 16, though.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fifty Shades Freed opened at $38.5M this past weekend.

Though it sounds good at first, it's already behind Fifty Shades Darker, which opened at $46.6M. Coupled with bad reviews, Fifty Shades Freed is certain to fall off big.

Fifty Shades Darker finished at $114M. I'm betting Fifty Shades Freed won't even get to $100M when its run ends.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, Black Panther is set to debut this weekend and is drawing mostly positive reviews and has an 8.1/10 aggregate score at Rotten Tomatoes.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/black_panther_2018

Deadpool, an R-rated superhero film, opened to $132M in February. I could see Black Panther challenging for a $150M opening weekend.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where you guys surprised at "The Greatest Showman" 's numbers.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought Greatest Showman was a steady performer at the box office. It was hard to project where it would go with Last Jedi in theaters, but it did find an audience and will pass $150M, which is good.

I'd say it exceeded my expectations -- Showman struck me as a $100M domestic draw, so getting past $150M was a win.

Jumanji remains the holiday film I was most impressed with in terms of domestic draw. No way did I think it had a chance at $200M, much less the $350M it has drawn, yet here we are.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Black Panther drew $25.2M in Thursday previews.

I think Mojo is on the right track that Black Panther will make a serious push at $200M over the next four days, given that this is President's Day weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4370&p=.htm
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was surprised. The market for musicals is much stronger that I thought....& it may have been there for a long time. Seems musical tastes today includes shows tunes & convention music that was rejected by us hippies in the 60's & 70's. I think TV talent shows have changed attitudes.---Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$192M estimated opening weekend for Black Panther. Mojo is now predicting it will have $218M after Monday.

Mojo has a comp with the biggest MCU debuts.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=marvelopeners.htm

The only one it trails is the first Avengers film, which drew $226M in its first four days and led off the summer box office that year.

It's hard to say if this one will get to the heights Avengers reached, but it's definitely beating Civil War ($408M) and, if it has good legs, will beat Age of Ultron ($459M).

Black Panther will need the weekends to gain ground on Avengers, though, because it's not likely to do the business on weekdays it needs to stay with Avengers' pace. But I wouldn't rule out $500M domestic take.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The actuals were $10M over the estimates, and then it added $40M on Monday. The Sunday and Monday numbers are completely insane.

There are quite a few movies coming up that can do decent business. But this type of opening very much feels like a $500M movie, even for a release outside of the Summer and Christmas Holidays. Just a monster.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Panther's numbers continue to be nuts, and it's not clear what a good comp is.

It's $105M and growing on Deadpool, which made $363M in a similar Feb release.

It's $65M and growing on Cap3, which made $408M out of the Lead Off Spot rather than being released in February.

It's $50M up and growing on Avengers 2, which got to $459M.

It's $60M up on Beauty and the Beast, which was a March release and pocketed $500M+.

It's $20M up on Avengers, which made $623M. Panther is *not* doing $600M. But it has $140M+ of margin in Avengers pace to get to $500M.

If it pulls in $90M this weekend like Beauty and the Beast did on its second weekend, it's pretty much a lock for $500M. That $90M would be a bigger drop than B&B, since that one opened at $174M rather than $202M. But it would give Panther enough distance towards $500M and enough margin on B%B that falling short of $500M would be pretty impossible.

Wonder Woman doing $412M last year was an insane way above expectations box office. Panther by the end of the weekend could be just a handful of days away from topping that number.

Insane.

The number to watch, which I don't think is happening since this isn't a summer release, is $534M. That's The Dark Knight, which is the #2 Superhero movie of all-time and the #1 "solo" superhero movie of all-time. Panther making a run at being the #1 solo super movie of all-time would be nuts. I don't think it's going to happen unless this weekend is up over $100M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo is projecting a $100M weekend and I think Mojo is right.

$500M is a lock, given how much Black Panther has drawn this past week.

How close it gets to Avengers remains to be seen, but Black Panther has definitely set the bar high for the rest of the field this year.

At this point, I don't know if you can draw a direct comp to any film. Hard to think of one whose pace it can be compared to, given the time of the year it got released.

But you have to think that Marvel will want Black Panther to play a big role in the fourth phase of its MCU and give the next one a summer release.

And Black Panther might be the early favorite to win the year's box office crown, given the crowded field there will be during the summer.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$108M estimated second weekend for Black Panther.

It has passed $400M after just its second weekend and has a legitimate shot at Dark Knight's $534M tally.

It's still got a $27M lead on Avengers, though it remains to be seen if it will keep beating Avengers on upcoming weekdays.

Plus A Wrinkle in Time comes out in March and there's going to be some crossover with Black Panther's audience. While $600M is in play, it remains to be seen if Panther makes it that high.

But Panther has a legitimate shot at the highest domestic gross for 2018.
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